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What is Mean Betting?
Mean betting‚ also known as Expected Value (EV) betting‚ is a strategic approach where bettors identify and capitalize on discrepancies between a bet’s true probability and the odds offered by sportsbooks.
Expected Value (EV)
Expected Value (EV) is the cornerstone of mean betting and represents the average outcome you can expect from a bet over the long run. It’s not about predicting the result of a single wager but rather understanding the potential profitability of a betting strategy over numerous similar bets. A positive EV suggests that the bet is likely to yield profit in the long term‚ while a negative EV indicates a potential loss.
Think of it like flipping a coin. If you bet $1 on heads‚ and the payout is even money ($1)‚ your EV is zero. You have an equal chance of winning or losing‚ so over many flips‚ you’ll likely break even. However‚ if someone offered you $1.10 for every $1 you bet on heads‚ the EV becomes positive. You still have a 50/50 chance‚ but the potential reward now outweighs the risk‚ making it a profitable bet in the long haul.
In sports betting‚ EV calculations involve assessing the true probability of an event occurring and comparing it to the implied probability reflected in the odds provided by the bookmaker. Discrepancies between these probabilities create opportunities for positive EV bets. Essentially‚ you’re looking for situations where you believe the bookmaker has underestimated the likelihood of a particular outcome; By consistently placing positive EV bets‚ you tilt the odds in your favor and increase your chances of long-term profitability.
Calculating EV
Calculating Expected Value (EV) might seem daunting‚ but it’s a straightforward process that can be broken down into a simple formula⁚
EV = (Probability of Winning x Amount Won per Bet) ⏤ (Probability of Losing x Amount Lost per Bet)
Let’s illustrate with an example. Suppose you want to bet on a coin toss‚ and the bookmaker offers odds of 2.00 (equivalent to even money or a 50% chance) for both heads and tails. You believe the true probability of heads is actually 55% (implied probability of 1.82). If you were to bet $10 on heads‚ the calculation would be⁚
In this scenario‚ your EV is positive ($1.00). This means that‚ on average‚ you can expect to profit $1.00 for every $10 bet placed on heads‚ assuming your 55% probability assessment is accurate.
Remember that EV is a long-term concept. You might not win every single coin toss‚ but by consistently placing bets with positive EV‚ you increase your chances of making a profit over time.
Identifying Value Bets
Identifying value bets is the cornerstone of successful mean betting. It involves recognizing situations where the odds offered by a sportsbook underestimate the actual probability of an outcome occurring.
Positive EV Bets
Positive EV bets are the holy grail of mean betting. They represent wagers where the potential profit outweighs the inherent risk‚ giving the bettor a statistical edge over the sportsbook in the long run. Let’s delve into the concept of positive EV bets and how to identify them⁚
Understanding Positive EV
In essence‚ a positive EV bet implies that if you were to place the same bet numerous times under identical circumstances‚ you would anticipate making a profit over the long haul. This doesn’t guarantee a win every single time‚ as variance (luck) plays a role in the short term. However‚ by consistently wagering on positive EV bets‚ your chances of ending up in the green increase significantly.
Calculating Positive EV
The formula for calculating EV provides a clear way to determine if a bet holds positive value⁚
EV = (Probability of Winning x Potential Profit) ౼ (Probability of Losing x Amount Wagered)
For a bet to be considered positive EV‚ the resulting value must be greater than zero. This indicates that the potential gains outweigh the potential losses over time.
Illustrative Example
Let’s imagine a coin toss scenario where a sportsbook offers odds of 2.00 (even money) for both heads and tails. In a fair coin toss‚ the probability of each outcome is 50%. Using the EV formula⁚
EV = (0.5 x $100) ౼ (0.5 x $100) = $0
In this case‚ the EV is zero‚ meaning it’s a neutral EV bet. Neither the bettor nor the sportsbook holds a statistical advantage.
Now‚ let’s say the sportsbook‚ due to various factors‚ offers odds of 2.10 for heads. The EV calculation becomes⁚
EV = (0.5 x $110) ౼ (0.5 x $100) = $5
This represents a positive EV bet. If you consistently wager on heads at these odds‚ you’d expect to profit $5 for every $100 wagered over many trials.
Key Takeaway
Identifying and consistently wagering on positive EV bets forms the foundation of a profitable mean betting strategy. It’s not about winning every bet‚ but rather about making mathematically sound decisions that tilt the odds in your favor over time. Remember‚ patience‚ discipline‚ and a keen eye for valuable opportunities are essential traits for any aspiring mean bettor.